According to one of the top military think tanks in the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to launch a new offensive in Ukraine in the spring or early summer.
According to a daily campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), believes Russian troops are reorganizing in preparation for a big offensive in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
The think tank noted that after Russia withdrew from Kherson Oblast, it saw are deployment of conventional forces, including Airborne (VDV) elements, to the Svatove-Kreminna axis. ISW further asserts that it is doubtful that Russian troops are preparing to launch a fresh offensive against northern Ukraine from Belarus.
Since Putin began his “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has made some progress in the country’s east and south, but it has also encountered fierce resistance in some areas and lost territories it had captured to Kyiv’s counteroffensives.
The Wagner Group of mercenaries, thought to make up about 10% of all Russian fighters in Ukraine, has been crucial in the fighting.
According to investigative reports, the Wagner mercenary group and its associated entities have reportedly been subject to new sanctions from the US Treasury Department.
Human rights abuses committed by Wagner have been verified on numerous continents. In 2017, a video was released showing Wagner mercenaries beheading a Syrian man who had previously avoided military service.
In the village of Moura in Mali last year, hundreds of civilians were executed by Wagner forces and pro-government militia members.
John Kirby, the coordinator for the National Security Council at the White House, posted satellite images that allegedly showed Wagner receiving weapons from North Korea.
The ISW report stated that the group’s combat readiness appeared to suffer due to Wagner’s reliance on recruiting from penal colonies.
The Wagner Group’s goal of having fewer non-convict mercenaries die makes it challenging to keep and utilize their large number of prisoners long-term.
