(PresidentialInsider.com)- According to a Politico report on Wednesday, the chances just got better for Republicans retaking the House in the 2022 Midterm elections — thanks to state Republicans’ redistricting power.
Nearly half (15) of the 33 Republican incumbents who won competitive races in 2020 (AKA by fewer than eight points), are from states where Republicans have complete control over congressional redistricting.
By contrast, of the 33 Democrat incumbents that won by the same competitive margin in 2020, only five live in a state where Democrats have complete control.
This will be especially effective in districts that consist of both purple suburbs and red rural areas – most notably in states like South Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, and Utah. But the biggest fish to benefit from GOP redistricting is Texas where Republicans are poised to shore up at least six vulnerable Republican members.
On Tuesday, Republican state lawmakers in Indiana presented a draft congressional plan that would change Congressional District 5 — the state’s most competitive district – into a relatively safe red seat by redistricting out voters in a deep-blue area.
Christina Hale, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Republican Victoria Spartz in 2020, complained to Politico that this is clearly “a bit of a kneecapping” to any Democrat interested in running in District 5. “The deck is stacked,” Hale added. While she concedes that it isn’t impossible for a Democrat to seriously contest the seat, she still believes it will be a number of years before Democrats see “a real race.”
Democrats are especially peeved about Texas – a state that they have for years fantasized about turning Blue.
Former chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Congresswoman Cheri Bustos, told Politico that she once envisioned Texas going from red to slightly purple to blue “in a matter of, I used to say two, four, six, eight years.” But now, Bustos believes with Republicans controlling the map, all bets are off.
And while Congressional Democrats love to complain about Republican redistricting in states they long to flip, the truth is, that same kind of redistricting is being done by Democrat-controlled legislators too. What bothers them this time around is Republicans have the most to gain.