Gavin Newsom Recall Effort Is Dead Heat

( It is becoming increasingly clear why California plans to utilize the pandemic-era election rules for the upcoming recall of Gavin Newsom. A new Emerson College/Nexstar poll released this week shows California voters are almost evenly split over the recall vote. Relying on mail-in voting certainly would be one way to prevent the embattled governor from losing in September.

According to the Emerson/Nexstar poll, 46 percent of California voters are in favor of recalling Governor Newsom while 48 percent say that are opposed. A remaining six percent say they are undecided – which is a three percent drop from previous polling. And apparently those three percent have joined the “in favor” crowd.

Broken down by party, the poll found 80 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of Independents support the recall election, saying they would vote against Newsom. Among Democrats Newsom has the support of 73 percent with only 23 percent saying they plan to vote to recall the governor.

The educational divide is also significant. The majority of those without college degrees (54 percent) favor recall whereas only 36 percent of college-educated respondents favor it. Fifty-nine percent of the college-educated oppose the recall.

Men are evenly split 47 percent to 47 percent. However, among women, Newsom enjoys the edge – 51 percent opposed and only 44 percent in favor of recall.

Most surprisingly, among racial groups, the majority of Hispanics (54 percent) say they would vote to remove Newsom. Blacks and Asians are more inclined to oppose recall – 57 percent of blacks and 49 percent of Asians. Whereas whites are more evenly divided – 48 percent favor recall, while 49 percent do not.

As far as a possible replacement, California voters appear unsure whom to support. Currently 40 percent of respondents looking to recall Newsom have not settled on an alternative candidate. Among those currently running to replace Newsom, conservative radio host Larry Elder leads the pack with 23 percent support.

From fundraising reports, it appears that Republicans are coalescing behind Larry Elder. In the nineteen days since announcing his campaign, Elder has raised $4.5 million – averaging $235,000 in campaign donations each day.